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SEW Soccer Analytics

The SEW Sports Economics research group is happy to present its project, called Soccer Analytics. In this project we developed our own and independent forecast for the German Bundesliga. The forecast is produced using empirical methods of the so-called machine learning. 

(last update 03.10.2017)

Updates of the results are announced on Twitter.

On this page we present answers to the following questions: What is the range of final rankings of a team? Who are the favourites and underdogs in each specific game of the upcoming round? How the final table of the season will most likely look like? Which teams are the positive and negative surprises of the season so far?

We provide short explantions how the predictions are calculated and provide more details under further explanations. Additionally, we present results for other interesting analyses. We provide further analyses and assess forecast quality.

Summary:
FC Bayern Munich defends with an expected high probability of 67% the championship. The only serious pursuer is Dortmund with 28% probability to win the title. Favorites for the remaining Champions League places are Mönchengladbach (62%), Leipzig (61%) and Schalke (37%). Leverkusen and Hoffenheim are fighting for the connection. However, the competition behind these top teams is very tight. Especially the relegation campaign promises to be exciting until the end of the season. Ten teams still have a probability of at least 15% to finish on one of the relegation ranks.

Rank in the final table
The table below shows how likely every team finishes on a certain rank. To calculate these probabilities, we simulate over 10,000 different seasons by a computer program based on our prediction model. If you want to know how, please read our further explanations. The interactive graph shows how often each team finished in each position at the end of the simulated seasons. In further analyses, we illustrate these numbers in an interactive graph and show probabilities to achieve different seasonal goals.


Probabilities smaller than 5% are not displayed
ER: Expected ranks
EP: Expected points (graphical illustration in further analyses)
↑↓: Difference in EP of the final table between current prediction and prediction before season (details in further analyses)

 

Next round
Here, fans can check the probabilities according to which their team wins, looses or draws in the next round. It is often erroneously assumed that we predict the team with higher winning probability will win. This interpretation is misleading. You should think about the presented numbers in the following way: Imagine the same teams in the same situation play against each other 100 times. Then the reported probabilities show how many of these imaginary 100 games are expected to have the respective outcome.

Over- and underperformers
The graph below shows for each team whether its achievements so far are above (green) or below (red) the expectations before the season. The bars show the difference between actually achieved points and points that a team was predicted to achieve so far according to the model in the beginning of the season.

For questions and suggestions please contact us via soccer.analytics@unisg.ch.